Gus’ Tiers: 2024 Wide Receiver Draft Prospects

Welcome to the latest edition of “Gus’ Tiers” at 1010XL/92.5 FM!

Each Wednesday, I’ll be using Tiermaker dot com to create a 100% correct ranking of a timely subject related to the Jacksonville Jaguars/NFL landscape.

For this week’s Tier, I ranked wide receiver prospects for the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. I used the same template as last week’s EDGE rankings.

Perennial All-Pro: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Film experts laud Harrison Jr. for his precise route-running, which is impressive considering his 6’3”, 209 lb frame. The son of Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison, Harrison Jr. is a tad frail and doesn’t offer a ton after the catch – but those are the only knocks on his game. He did have a more productive 2022 season than 2023, though quarterback play was a major factor. 

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Harrison Jr. earn a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie. He’s a ready-made X receiver who can win anywhere on the field. 

Pro Bowl talent: Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze

The second tier of receivers features two different flavors. Nabers led the nation in yards per route run (the best efficiency metric for receivers) last year thanks to the kind of speed that leaves a trail of fire behind him. Nabers will join Deebo Samuel and Jahmyr Gibbs among the league’s best accelerators from day one – but he also has enough nuance in his game (e.g., downfield ball tracking) to separate him from former first-round speedsters like John Ross or Henry Ruggs. 

Meanwhile, Odunze is special because his game is so well-rounded. He made playing the wide receiver position look easy during Washington’s run to the national championship game. Odunze is a silky route runner, strong ball winner, and full-field threat wrapped into one prospect. He is commonly compared to Davante Adams.

I have Nabers ranked above Odunze because the former is over a year younger and has a true calling card. That said, I wouldn’t fault anyone for having Odunze as WR2. They both rock. 

Year 1 starter: Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy

Thomas Jr. possesses a great speed/size profile and paced college football in touchdowns last year playing next to Nabers. He’ll immediately take the top off of opposing NFL defenses, and the 21-year-old has additional unlocked potential if he can grow his route tree. 

Mitchell and Worthy are two of the toughest prospects to grade at the position this year. They both underwhelmed statistically at Texas (though quarterback play was also a factor there) but their physical traits are too good to ignore. Mitchell is a smooth glider who registered a 9.97 Relative Athletic Score; Worthy is a speed demon who broke the all-time NFL Combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash. 

Starting potential: Ja’Lynn Polk, Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall, Javon Baker

Polk is similar to his Washington teammate Odunze in that he showed inside/outside versatility, full-extension adjustment, crafty route running and willingness as a blocker. From an athleticism standpoint, Odunze is great-not-elite while Polk is good-not-great. 

Coleman has a scary profile as a big-bodied, contested catch guy with lacking vertical speed. Those types of players usually don’t pan out unless your name is DeAndre Hopkins. But Coleman was faster on tape and in the NFL Combine’s gauntlet drill than his 4.61-second 40-yard dash (17th percentile) would suggest – not to mention he has more wiggle than most guys his size. Coleman’s basketball background is apparent in his tape, as is his infectious energy. 

While Pearsall is a crisp route runner with impressive hands, I’m not convinced he has the size or strength to play outside consistently. He also never recorded 1,000 yards in a season despite five attempts at Arizona State then Florida. I’ve long thought Pearsall will be a good pro, but I think the Adam Thielen clone should go later in Day 2 than he’s projected. 

On the contrary, Baker is a player who I think should go higher than where he’s currently being mocked (early Day 3). He transferred from Alabama to UCF and promptly led the Knights in receiving in each of the last two seasons. Baker must be more consistent as a route runner, but he’s shown plenty of promising flashes, and he’s one of the best receivers in the class at winning at the line of scrimmage. He has enough athleticism to win anywhere and to even be used on gadget plays behind the line of scrimmage. Baker reminds me of Romeo Doubs. 

Rotational player: Johnny Wilson, Jalen McMillan, Tez Walker, Roman Wilson

I found myself drawing a similar conclusion to Wilson as his FSU teammate Coleman – guys their size just don’t move as well as they do. Wilson is a towering 6’6⅜” with 35⅜” arms (both 99th percentile), which usually equates to stiff 50/50 ball winners, but Wilson has shown enough savvy in his game to suggest he could become a special football player in addition to a special athlete. 

McMillan was productive playing next to Odunze and Polk, though he missed four games last year due to a knee injury. While he can win at all three levels, McMillan does carry a slight frame, which helps explain why he isn’t a big threat against press or over the middle or after the catch. I like the comparison Nate Tice coined: Christian Kirk. 

Walker is the best bet to be a truly rotational player at the next level due to his top-tier speed and underrated ball skills. He’ll need to work on his footwork to expand his route tree, and it would’ve been nice to see him be more productive than he was at North Carolina playing with expected top-3 pick Drake Maye. That said, he’ll likely be the best vertical threat available after Round 1, which should help him find an immediate role in the NFL with the potential to grow into a full-time wideout. 

Wilson is listed here partly because of his late-breakout profile, but mostly because he’s a slot-only prospect. I don’t love players who are regulated to a single role before taking an NFL snap. He’s 5’10¾” and 185 lbs, though his speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash / 86th percentile) should make him productive at the next level. 

Riskyyy: Ladd McConkey, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton

Some might assume that McConkey is in the same boat as Wilson given his frame (5’11⅝” and 186 lbs). I actually think his quickness out of breaks lends a path to succeeding as a perimeter receiver, but his length (30¼” arms / 10th percentile) is just as lacking as his size, which doesn’t bode well for contested catches. I don’t think there’s much of a ceiling for McConkey, who turns 23 in November. 

The concern with Franklin is his weight (176 lbs / 5th percentile). His thin body type rarely works in the NFL. Former Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith may have successfully swiped Kevin Durant’s “slim reaper” nickname, but Smith’s superb length and strong hands allow him to win anywhere. Franklin is not in the same class, especially when it comes to finishing catches. 

I want to like Legette so badly but I can’t help being reminded of Treylon Burks when I watch him. The combination of bulking size and straight-line speed is tempting but everything else in his game needs work. Legette also has just one season of high-profile production and it came in his fifth year. 

There are flashes of Deebo Samuel’s game when watching Malachi Corley – he’s a tough son of a gun who looks to punish defenders on his way to the endzone. But unlike Samuel, Corley doesn’t have much experience running downfield routes, even after facing weak competition at Western Kentucky. I’m not convinced he can develop into anything more than a slot/gadget player. A more realistic comp would be Laviska Shenault Jr. or Amari Rodgers.

Burton is one of the 10 most talented receiver prospects in this draft; he is also the most immature. Dane Brugler said on a podcast that Burton found his way onto coaches’ s**t lists at both Georgia and Alabama. Sounds like a Steeler to me.

Thanks so much for reading! As a token of appreciation, here are my three favorite sleepers in this year’s receiver class: Luke McCaffrey, Cornelius Johnson and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.

@ me on Twitter to tell me where I went wrong (@gus_logue )