Jaguars face biggest test now: Sustaining success

By Hays Carlyon

The Jaguars won the strength vs. strength matchup.

It didn’t matter.

Buffalo showed off its significant playoff experience edge in beating the upstart Jaguars 27-24 in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs Sunday at EverBank Stadium.

The Jaguars entered the game with the NFL’s best run defense, allowing 85.6 yards a game. The Bills boasted the league’s best run offense, averaging 159.6 yards a game.

The Jaguars outrushed the Bills 154-79 on Sunday. I’m shocked that didn’t result in the Jags advancing.

The Bills’ ability to consistently win the millimeters that mattered most decided the outcome.

The Jaguars lost the turnover battle by one, committing two (both Trevor Lawrence interceptions) and only forcing one (a fumble on a kick return).

On fourth down, the Bills converted both their opportunities. The Jaguars fell just shy on their lone try when Lawrence dived short of the marker.

Lose the turnover battle.

Lose all three fourth-down conversion situations.

Go home.

It’s that simple.

Buffalo’s 29-year-old star quarterback Josh Allen collected his eighth career playoff win, accounting for three touchdowns (two rushing). Allen looked like the reigning MVP on Sunday, overcoming foot, jaw, knee and finger ailments.

You hope Lawrence will learn from this. He’s 26 with one playoff win.

Lawrence did throw three touchdowns, but the postseason inexperience showed at crucial moments. He actually became just the third player in NFL history to throw multiple go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and lose the game, joining Allen in 2021 at Kansas City and former New Orleans star Drew Brees in 2011 at San Francisco.

Jaguars coach Liam Coen has been brilliant this season, guiding the Jaguars to 13 wins and the AFC South title after inheriting a 4-13 mess. This was his first playoff game and it showed at times.

Coen will have to wonder what might’ve been had he relied more on his running backs who combined for 15 carries. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten was particularly effective, rushing for 51 yards on four carries. He did not touch the ball in the second half, reminding us of Doug Marrone’s Corey Grant disappearing act in the second half of the 2017 AFC Championship Game at New England.

The Jaguars defense was simply done in by one of the league’s best players in Allen. He guided the Bills to a 7-of-14 effort on third down, which allowed Buffalo to hold the ball for 33:49.

There is no shame in losing to Buffalo, who could easily go on to win the Super Bowl.

This has been an outstanding season beyond any fan’s wildest expectations in August.

Now comes the real test.

Marrone and Doug Pederson both won AFC South titles their first season here. They also won at least one playoff game in those runs.

But success beyond that eluded both. In fact, their respective collapses came quick.

I don’t believe that will happen this time.

Coen has the right partners in EVP Tony Boselli and general manager James Gladstone.

The roster is in good shape and there’s reasonable salary cap space.

Linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne could leave in free agency, but the bulk of the team comes back. The draft class was held back by injuries to two-way player Travis Hunter and third-round safety Caleb Ransaw. They will be back.

The Jaguars will be seen as a team where winning big is possible with an innovative staff. That will help in adding supplemental pieces in free agency.

Despite not having a first-round pick, the team still owns 10 selections. Gladstone’s picks in the middle-to-late rounds were impressive.

Coen has set the standard.

Fourteen teams make the playoffs and 13 face disappointment.

The important thing is consistently getting back to the tournament.

I believe Coen, Lawrence and company will be making many more trips.

(You can email Hays at [email protected] and follow him on X/Twitter @HaysCarlyon).