By John O’Leary
The 1-1 Jaguars are back home for their first AFC South matchup of the year against the Houston Texans. Both teams are entering week 3 after disappointing week 2 losses, and this game certainly has the feeling that both teams are eyeing it as a must-win scenario. The Texans are facing their first 0-3 start since 2018, and the Jaguars fanbase is all too familiar with what can happen if the franchise starts 1-2 on the year. Here are my best bets for this Week 3 matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Houston Texans U10.5 1H Total Points -150
The Houston Texans have delivered very low scoring in both of their games this season. Against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, they managed to score twice but had to settle for Ka’imi Fairbairn kicking 45 and 51 yard field goals. While the Texans did have more success in Week 2 against the Buccaneers, they were only able to put up 10 points in the first half. The Texans did have a late scoring surge against Tampa Bay, scoring nine fourth-quarter points against the Bucs, but that doesn’t change the ugly offensive performance that they had after they scored their initial 10 points. The Texans’ offense had to walk off the field empty-handed for the entirety of the second and third quarters, with the first drive of the fourth quarter resulting in a turnover on downs as well.
The Jaguars enter this matchup with the fourth-best defensive grade on PFF and will be the highest-ranked defense that the Texans have faced. The Rams come in at sixth on PFF’s rankings, and the Buccaneers come in at 23rd overall. The Jaguars are also 2-0 against this line so far in the 2025 season, with the anemic Panthers offense putting up three points in Week 1 and the Bengals scoring 10 points in Week 2.
Travis Etienne ATD +110 or Bhayshul Tuten ATD +210
The Jaguars have made it a point of emphasis to get the ball into their explosive playmakers in creative ways. Jaguars head coach Liam Coen has been emphatic that Bhayshul Tuten is developing well within his offensive system. This is clear from the sizeable jump in his usage as he went from three touches in Week 1 to 10 total against the Bengals in Week 2, with his first receiving touches coming in Week 2 as well. The Texans allowed Bucs running back Bucky Irving to catch all six of his targets as he finished with 93 total yards last week.
Coen has the rushing attack humming for the Jaguars, as Etienne and Tuten have found success in their first two games, totaling 267 yards on the ground across 41 carries. The Texans have allowed five total touchdowns in their first two games, two of which have been on the ground. The Bucs’ running back Rachaad White and the Rams’ running back Kyren Williams were both able to find pay dirt in their contests.
I like this play as a half unit on both Etienne and Tuten as a hedge against each other since they are both plus odds currently and should have success against a Texans defense that is allowing 120.5 yards per game, which is good for the 11th most rushing yards a game this season.
Travis Hunter O3.5 receptions -145
The Jaguars have been effective at using the dual-threat weapon that is Travis Hunter. If it wasn’t for a miraculous interception by Panthers DB Jaycee Horn in Week 1 and a questionable pass interference call in Week 2, Hunter would be an even bigger talking point amongst the national media landscape. When Hunter is playing on the offensive side of the ball, he has lined up in the slot a considerable amount of time so far, and he will more than likely be drawing Texans slot DB Jalen Pitre. Pitre has allowed an 85.7% catch rate to opposing receivers so far this season on 7 balls that have come his way. Opposing quarterbacks who have thrown Pitre’s way have had a passer rating of 108.3 to this point.
Hunter would have easily hit this number in Week 1 with six receptions and was just a reception shy of hitting it last week against Cincinnati. With Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. having struggled in the first two weeks, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence could look to the 2024 Biletnikoff Award winner to have a sure pair of hands at the ready in short-yardage situations they will face.
You can email John at [email protected] or find him on X at @JohnOleary22
