What Lies Ahead for Trevor Lawrence?
Few players in NFL history have dealt with the same titanic expectations from draft day as Trevor Lawrence.
The surefire consensus #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, the Clemson University prodigy was immediately labeled as the Jaguars savior, with many drawing comparisons to perhaps the greatest college QB prospect of all time, Andrew Luck.
But, his rookie season ended up looking like that of another NFL legend, Peyton Manning. Behind a weak receiving core and a rough o-line, Lawrence struggled to get much of anything going, finishing with a completion percentage below 60 with just 12 touchdowns and a league-leading 17 interceptions.
And just like Manning, he shut everyone up and turned it around almost immediately with his confidence soaring off the charts, according to his head coach. Last season, Trevor Lawrence put up impressive stats, led the Jags to a surprise playoff appearance, and orchestrated the largest comeback in NFL playoff history, all while joining a rare breed of quarterbacks who finished top ten in MVP voting in just their second season.
Now in his third year, Lawrence once again has Jacksonville rolling, currently riding a five-game win streak to the top of the AFC South. So, the question for one of pro football’s top young QBs is, what’s next?
Strong Underlying Numbers
One of the most important aspects for a young QB is ball security. It doesn’t matter how much you can sling the rock, if you can’t hold onto the football, you won’t last. Just ask Jameis Winston.
Luckily, Lawrence has already made marked improvements in this regard. Remember when he led the league in interceptions in his rookie year? Yeah, that’s not a problem anymore. The former first overall pick has thrown just 12 regular season picks in the 25 games since, good for the 6th lowest interception percentage in football over that time.
It’s not like this is due to a risk-averse playstyle either. Lawrence’s 7.1 adjusted yards per pass attempt puts him right behind elite talents in the game like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and solidly in the acceptable range for NFL starters.
Another great metric to showcase his continued growth is pass success percentage. This is a more nuanced approach to deeming the success of a passing play, where a successful pass on first down gets at least 40% of the yards to gain, 60% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down.
In this metric, Lawrence has steadily improved every year of his career, from 44.6% in his rookie season, all the way to 49.7% in 2023. This puts him comfortably in a range with other star QB’s like Joe Burrow (47.9%), Justin Herbert (48.3%), and Lamar Jackson (48.9%).
While his counting stats might not pop off the page, Lawrence is already showing significant gains in ball security and effectiveness at moving the ball down the field at a high level.
A Stable Organization
Look at any sport and you’ll see legendary talents who were eventually held back by incompetent organizations. Luckily, it seems that Lawrence has come at the right time in Jaguars history to work with a stellar coaching staff and front office.
Head Coach Doug Pederson is a former NFL quarterback and Super Bowl champion, whose arrival in Duval has worked wonders for the young signal caller. And Trent Baalke might have had problems as a GM during his first stint in San Francisco, but his spending spree in 2022 free agency was the catalyst for Jacksonville’s division win last season.
Now, the Jaguars appear to have promising talent everywhere you look. Whether it’s Lawrence’s Clemson teammate at running back Travis Etienne, a solid receiver room led by Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, or an elite defensive unit that’s leading the league in forced turnovers, this seems like a team primed for success for years to come.
The only concerning blip could be the offensive line, which continues to have its ups and downs. But, the stable veteran presence of Cam Robinson, the surprise breakout of Stanford grad Walker Little, and the continued growth of 2023 27th overall pick Anton Harrison should see this unit improve over the coming months.
But overall, this is an organization that seems more than capable of facilitating the growth of a superstar QB.
The Sky’s the Limit
By year three, Trevor Lawrence has already firmly cemented himself among the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s secure with the football, great at moving the offense down the field, and has a well-built team around him that’s lined up to compete in the playoffs for years to come.
Assuming he stays healthy, the floor for Lawrence seems like a perennial Pro-Bowler. But, he’s in the type of situation that can produce a Hall of Fame QB, and it will be up to Lawrence to reach his ceiling and make that final leap into the truly elite category.
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