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2022 Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule & Division Outlook

todayAugust 3, 2022

Background

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a weak schedule in 2022. And with the Houston Texans seemingly out of the way this season, could the Jags could make a wildcard run at the playoffs?

Let’s look at a few key games in their schedule and where they could end up standing in the AFC South in 2022.

But first … preseason is upon us!

Before the season starts, the Jags will face the Raiders in preseason Week 1, the Browns during preseason Week 2, the Steelers during Week 3, and the Atlanta Falcons in the final preseason affair.

Confidence is key and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jags get a preseason win against the Raiders, as Josh McDaniels is 0-2 in preseason Week 1 play. But perhaps a better preseason game to watch will be their Week 3 scrimmage versus Mike Tomlin’s Men of Steel. Both Mike Tomlin and Doug Peterson like to get a Week 3 preseason win, with Doug Peterson 2-2 and Mike Tomlin 8-6 in the third week of preseason play. Odds will soon be available at Pennsylvania sports betting sites.

JAX Regular Season SOS

The Jaguars come in way down the list at No. 26 regarding their 2022 strength of schedule. Their opponents’ win percentage from the previous years is well under .500 at 0.469. Unfortunately, the Indianapolis Colts also have the same exact opponent win percentage on schedule this year. In fact, the entire AFC South is on the back half of the difficulty rating. The Tennessee Titans are tied for 24th with the Chicago Bears at 0.471, and the Houston Texans are 19th with an average opponent win percentage of 0.488.

So, unfortunately, it’s not like JAX gets an ‘easy’ season compared to the rest of their division.

However, I calculate the SOS based on the projected wins of each scheduled opponent instead of looking at what they did last season. When we look at it this way, the Indianapolis Colts actually have the 7th toughest schedule in the league and the Tennessee Titans the 15th hardest. The Jaguars move up to the 20th most challenging schedule in 2022, and the Texans are right behind with the 21st. But that’s ok; we all know the Texans will completely bomb in 2022.

AFC South FPI

The Colts lead the charge in the AFC South regarding the football power index over at ESPN, and the Tennessee Titans are the definition of average with an FPI of 0.09—the Eagles at 0.01 are actually the definition of average. But where do the Jags and Texans fall?

1. Indianapolis 4.2

2. Tennessee 0.9

3. Jacksonville -8.2

4. Houston -12.0

If we go by the FPI ratings, the Jags are in for a tough year, losing to teams like the Eagles 8 points on a neutral field and teams like the Bills and Packers by 16 or more.

This brings me to a few key games on the Jags’ schedule:

Week 1 at Washington

The Commanders are a subpar football team, but they have home-field advantage in this one. That said, this is a game that JAX could win. If they come out strong and get a road win against a mediocre Washington team, it will set the stage for the season. Heck, even if they lose but keep close and competitive.

Week 2 at Home Vs. Indianapolis

The Colts come to town in Week 2 and will be looking to establish their dominance over their division rivals early on. Again, a home win in Week two would set the Jags up for a solid chance of competing for the division. Even if they don’t get the win, the Colts are, statistically speaking, a much better football team at the moment. So, a close game would still boost confidence and let revor Lawrence and the squad know that they have a chance.

Texans in Weeks 5 and 17

The Jags have to get division wins where they can. The Texans are a mess, and Jacksonville needs to take both games off them to keep their division record competitive.

NY Teams in Weeks 7 and 16

The game against the Giants in Week 7 isn’t as important as the Week 16 AFC showdown against the Jets. The Jets have the worst preseason FPI in the league, and the Jags need this road win. Even in NY, they should beat the Jets. Conversely, the Giants will visit Florida to face the Jags. Although the Giants are about 4 points better

on paper, they’ll be playing in Jacksonville. This game should come out with odds at a pick’em, or maybe the Giants favored by a point or point-and-half. The non-conference game won’t have much impact on the Jags’ playoff chances, but it is a mid-season game where a win could mentally and emotionally empower the team and give them some much-needed momentum.

All in all, the Jags have a tough season ahead of them, but there is hope that they go over their season wins total of 6.5 games and get a 7-win season or better. Even 6 wins is twice as good as last year, and a massive step in the right direction.

 

 

Written by: 1010admin


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