2024 Big Game Pick’em Guide

The Big Game is just a few days away!

To help prepare for this season’s football finale, I’ve taken the courtesy of rounding up my favorite picks on Underdog Fantasy.

Brandon Aiyuk 59.5 receiving yards (Lower): Aiyuk ranked ninth in receiving yards per game this season (83.9) but the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing no. 1 receivers (49.4). Shutdown cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is likely to shadow Aiyuk on Sunday.

Isiah Pacheco 69.5 rushing yards (Higher): Since Kansas City’s Christmas Day loss to the Raiders, Pacheco has rushed for 130, 89, 97, and 68 yards with at least 15 carries and 70% of offensive snaps played in each game. David Montgomery and Aaron Jones each reached 90-plus yards on the ground in the playoffs against San Francisco. The Chiefs run game against the Niners run defense is a clear advantage for K.C. and I expect Pacheco to make the most of it.

Nick Bosa 0.5 sacks (Lower): The younger Bosa Bro is one of the best players in this matchup, but he’ll be tasked with bringing down the best player on the field on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes has 0 interceptions and 5 sacks taken since the start of last postseason (six games). His trick-shot passes are stupendous, but Mahomes’ real calling card has been the ability to take what defenses give him. I trust him to avoid mistakes and Andy Reid to game plan around Bosa.

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Now, here’s some quick-hitting thoughts on other fun picks.

Game MVP: Of the past 20 award winners, 13 were quarterbacks, five were wide receivers, and two were linebackers. So the hardware goes to the winning passer unless a pass-catcher or defender makes a game-swinging play. A wager on Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy won’t return much value (you may as well bet on their respective team to win straight up), and selecting Isiah Pacheco or Christian McCaffrey may be a fool’s errand (a running back hasn’t won the award since Terrell Davis in 1998). My favorite bets this year are Chris Jones or Deebo Samuel, depending on who you expect to win. Jones is a future Hall of Famer who steps up his game when it matters most and has a nice matchup against San Francisco’s interior o-line; Samuel creates explosive plays as well as anyone in the league, let alone in this contest, and he’ll benefit from Sneed primarily covering Aiyuk. Those are the non-quarterbacks who I expect to have the biggest impact on Sunday.

First touchdown scorer: Rookie receiver Rashee Rice joins Isiah Pacheco as the only Chiefs to score the first touchdown in multiple games this year. Rice also ranked behind only CeeDee Lamb in red zone receptions. Kansas City likes to use its second-rounder in scoring situations, and I expect him to get opportunities early against San Francisco’s zone defense.

Gatorade color: The Chiefs recently used Purple and Orange, which makes them the favorites. But I like Red. Though it hasn’t been used this century, both teams don the color (technically it’s scarlet for S.F.) and more importantly, I believe it has some relation to Travis Kelce’s girlfriend.

Coin toss: Tails has won seven of the last 10 big game coin tosses (including when these teams met in 2019) and is 30-27 all-time. Give me the chalk here.

Taylor Swift TV time: Most sportsbooks set this line around 32.5 seconds. I’m taking the over regardless. Travis Kelce probably just needs one or two big plays to get Swift on screen, but I expect her to attract plenty of attention regardless of his performance. If you’re mad about it, well, boo hoo.

Number of halftime songs: The line at most sportsbooks is set at 8.5, which seems like a lot to get through in just 12-15 minutes, but Bruno Mars in 2014 and Lady Gaga in 2017 (debatably) were the only halftime shows in the past decade with less. I’d take the over.

First halftime song: The only option is Usher’s greatest hit (in this writer’s opinion): Yeah!

Best of luck on Sunday!